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LIKELY ODDS FRAMEWORK

Know the bracket.
Set the stake.

Understand the benchmarks behind your Tip Slip and My Tips: where your tips sit across 12 odds brackets, and how your staking compares.

Explore the framework
WHY WE BUILT IT

Give your tipping
a point of reference.

A return or win rate tells you part of the story. The odds you tip at, how often you use each price range and the units you stake give that performance context.

The Likely Odds Framework provides a shared benchmark for those decisions. In the Tip Slip, your odds-range breakdown puts your existing activity beside the target volumes before you add a tip. In My Tips, you can review that mix alongside returns, win rate, average odds and average stake.

Understand the benchmark Reference it in the Tip Slip Review it in My Tips
01 / EXPLORE THE BRACKETS

See where every bet fits.

These are the reference brackets for reviewing your tips on Likely. Select a row to explore its target volume, staking limits and intended role.

LIKELY ODDS FRAMEWORK

Odds. Volume. Stake.

DECIMAL ODDS · UNITS
Auto exploring · hover to pause · select a row to stop
Likely Odds Framework: target volume and stake ranges for all twelve odds brackets.
Odds rangeTarget volumeStrategic roleMinTypicalMax
0–2%Preservation0.5u0.5–1.0u1.5u
3–7%Foundation0.5u0.5–1.0u1.5u
5–10%Core Stabiliser1.0u1.0–1.5u1.5u
5–15%Lower Core1.0u1.0–1.5u1.5u
10–20%Upper Core1.0u1.0–1.5u2.0u
15–20%Value Zone1.0u1.0–1.5u2.0u
15–20%Growth Zone1.0u1.0–1.5u2.0u
10–20%Opportunity Zone1.0u1.0–1.5u1.5u
5–15%Selective Value1.0u1.0–1.5u1.5u
5–10%Underdog Opportunities0.5u0.5–1.0u1.5u
1–5%Rare Underdogs0.5u0.5–1.0u1.0u
0–2%Exceptions0.5u0.5u0.5u
SELECTED BRACKETSelect a row to explore its role.

Volume is the percentage of bets, not the percentage of your bankroll.

Target volume = share of tips 1u = 1% of your betting bankroll
SELECTED ODDS BRACKET
1.80–1.89
Value Zone

A central role, with a firm ceiling.

AT A GLANCE
15–20of 100 illustrative tips
Lower endUp to upper end
Stake per bet
0u1u2u

Select another bracket to compare its limits.

Volume is a share of tips to review, not a quota to fill.

Why this share of bets?

Why these stake limits?

MINTYPICALMAX

What changes at this bracket?

What these recommendations mean

These allocation and staking rules were developed through years of Likely research and historical analysis, and may be updated as evidence evolves. The Tip Slip restricts stakes to the permitted bracket limits. Research confidence and estimated edge inform your choice within those limits; they do not guarantee a return.

WHY THE FRAMEWORK HAS THIS SHAPE

Different prices.
Different exposure.

Target volume sets the intended mix of tips. Stake limits set the units exposed on an individual tip. The framework uses both to give each price range a defined role.

01 FOUNDATION / 1.00–1.69

Small payouts need perspective.

At 1.20 odds · 1u stake5 wins = 1 lossFive wins produce +1u; one loss costs −1u.

Short prices offer a smaller profit relative to the amount at risk. A high win rate can therefore sit alongside modest or negative returns. That payout imbalance matters even when a selection looks likely to win.

The framework gives these brackets supporting volume roles and a 1.5u ceiling. Typical stakes start at 0.5–1.0u and rise to 1.0–1.5u from 1.50, so the shortest prices are not treated as a reason to stake more.

The concern is payout imbalance—not that short odds inherently have higher variance.
02 CORE / 1.70–1.99

Emphasis through the mix.

Typical stake across the core1.0–1.5u2.0u is the ceiling, not the routine stake.

Likely places a larger target share in these brackets: 10–20% at 1.70–1.79 and 15–20% in each of the next two brackets. This is the framework’s chosen centre of activity.

The typical stake stays at 1.0–1.5u. Only these three brackets allow a 2.0u maximum. Separating the target mix from the stake ceiling keeps a greater emphasis on these prices from becoming an instruction to increase every stake.

A central role in the framework does not establish an edge in every selection.
03 SELECTIVE / 2.00–2.49

Keep opportunities selective.

Maximum across the Selective group1.5uTypical stakes step down to 0.5–1.0u from 2.26.

These prices offer more potential profit per unit than shorter odds, but imply less frequent wins. If the prices reflect the underlying chances, results can be more uneven and losing runs more plausible.

The framework pairs that larger payout with more selective volume: 10–20% at 2.00–2.09, 5–15% at 2.10–2.25 and 5–10% at 2.26–2.49. The maximum stays at 1.5u throughout; typical stakes reduce from 1.0–1.5u to 0.5–1.0u in the final bracket.

A larger potential payout does not justify a larger stake or more tips.
04 EXCEPTIONS / 2.50+

Limit both frequency and stake.

At 3.00+ / Exceptions bracket0–2% · 0.5uA limited target share and a fixed stake.

The Exceptions group includes Rare Underdogs at 2.50–2.99 and the Exceptions bracket at 3.00+. These longer prices imply fewer wins; where those prices reflect the underlying chances, longer losing runs become more plausible.

At 2.50–2.99, target volume is 1–5%, typical stakes are 0.5–1.0u and the maximum is 1.0u. At 3.00+, target volume narrows to 0–2% and the stake is fixed at 0.5u. The zero lower target means this bracket need not feature in your tips at all.

Keep longer-priced tips exceptional. A loss does not increase the next tip’s limit.

Why use volume and stake together?

A small stake repeated across many tips can still create substantial exposure. A low share of tips can also carry disproportionate exposure if stakes are large. In the Tip Slip and My Tips, read Current Volume, Target Volume and Avg Stake together with returns and win rate.

What supports the exact percentages and limits?

Likely determined the target volumes and staking limits through years of research and historical analysis. These settings may be updated as new research and evidence becomes available. Historical findings inform the approach but do not guarantee future results. Target shares are review benchmarks, not quotas or fixed allocations to add together.

USING THE FRAMEWORK IN LIKELY

Common questions

Understand the research, choose stakes in the Tip Slip and review your approach in My Tips.

Explore My Tips

Understanding the framework

Why did Likely build it, and how does it fit the Likely Method?

The framework provides a researched benchmark for your tip distribution and staking. It connects decisions in the Tip Slip with performance review in My Tips. The Likely Method guides research, value assessment and the decision to bet or pass; the framework supports the stake check and review of your tip mix.

How were the settings determined, and can they change?

They were developed through years of research and historical analysis, and may be updated as new evidence emerges. Historical findings do not guarantee future profit: each selection still needs supporting research and a price assessment, and the full stake can be lost.

Why do the four groups have different settings?

Foundation (1.00–1.69) accounts for smaller profits relative to the stake; Core (1.70–1.99) is the framework’s intended centre of activity; Selective (2.00–2.49) and Exceptions (2.50+) progressively limit exposure at longer prices. Short odds do not inherently mean higher variance; longer prices imply less frequent wins and potentially longer losing runs where prices reflect the underlying chances. The section above explains the rationale; select a table row for its exact settings.

Staking through the Tip Slip

What does 1u mean?

1u represents 1% of your betting bankroll. With a $1,000 bankroll, 1u is $10, 0.5u is $5 and 2u is $20. Units provide a consistent way to compare stake sizes.

How do I apply the framework in the Tip Slip?

Confirm the selection, market and odds, then check My Odds Range Breakdown for your existing mix. Choose from the stakes the slip permits and add the selection to My Tips. The slip only allows stakes within the selected bracket’s limits, in 0.25u increments. Overall limits are 0.5–2.0u; individual brackets can be tighter.

How should I choose a stake within the permitted range?

Use research confidence and estimated edge: the difference between your assessed chance and the chance implied by the available odds. A stronger, evidence-supported assessment may inform a higher stake within the limits, but the maximum is not a default. There is no fixed confidence-to-stake formula.

Why is the stake fixed at 0.5u for odds of 3.00+?

This bracket has the tightest settings: a 0–2% target share and a fixed 0.5u stake. Longer prices imply less frequent wins, so the framework limits both frequency and units exposed. Confidence or a previous result does not override the limit.

Volume and review in My Tips

What is Current Volume versus Target Volume?

Current Volume is a bracket’s share of your tips for the selected period; Target Volume is its framework reference range. For example, 18 of 100 tips is 18% current volume. This measures tip count, not bankroll share or total units staked. Changing a stake does not change that volume.

Should the target ranges add up to 100%?

No. They are ranges for individual brackets, not fixed allocations whose bounds should be added together. Your actual shares across all brackets total 100% of tips for the selected period. Compare each share with its corresponding range.

What should I review, and over what period?

Compare current and target volume alongside returns, win rate, tip count, average odds and average stake, both by bracket and overall. Prioritise whole seasons or multiple seasons. Shorter views help inspect recent activity, but small samples can distort the picture. There is no universal minimum tip count or mandatory review period.

What if a bracket is outside its target or underperforming?

Review the period, tip count, research, prices and average stakes, and whether the pattern persists over longer periods. Do not add tips to fill a quota or increase stakes to recover a loss. A short run alone does not establish whether the approach has succeeded or failed.

EXPLORE THE LIKELY METHOD

A framework for staking.
A method for the decision.

The Likely Method connects research, price and discipline in seven steps—from finding your focus to deciding whether to bet or pass, then recording and reviewing.

The Odds Framework supports the stake check. The method helps you assess the evidence, value and available price before that decision.

Explore the Likely Method
The method, in motion.
  1. 01Find your focus
  2. 02Scan for opportunities
  3. 03Build your shortlist
  4. 04Research and challenge
  5. 05Confirm value and price
  6. 06Decide: bet or pass
  7. 07Record and review
01 / FIND YOUR FOCUS

Start with sports and markets you understand.

YOUR NEXT STEP WITH LIKELY

Know More. Win More.

Create your account to explore Likely’s tools and use the framework in your Tip Slip and My Tips.

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Put your Pro tools to work. Explore opportunities, follow the method and review your performance in My Tips.

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